China’s Commodity Trade Data: Interpretation And Implications

China dominates numerous commodity markets globally – from iron ore and steel to base metals and agricultural markets. In a recent publication our commodities team took a deep dive into China’s trade data to better understand China’s role in these markets.

There are four important findings from their research regarding Chinese commodity imports:

  • China is likely to boost its oil imports significantly this year as the country’s oil demand could increase 900 thousand bbl/day, based on conservative assumptions we make for consumption and inventory building;
  • Growth in iron ore, copper ore and zinc ore imports likely will slow, but bauxite and nickel ore imports could rebound;
  • Soybean and cotton imports are expected to decline this year, while imports of corn, wheat, rice, sugar and coffee are likely to increase.
  • Over the next five years, we are most optimistic about Chinese oil and coffee imports and most pessimistic about Chinese imports of industrial metals.

For the full report and findings, please click here.

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