A Cliff Too Steep, Even For D.C.

Reprinted from: Barron’s
By:  Randall W. Forsyth

T he possibility of a U.S. disaster should sober up the politicians in D.C., and it’s likely to do just that.

…meanwhile, analysts at BCA Research think the electoral-college odds favor Obama, but add that Romney has a 40% chance of winning, depending on how the “electoral dice roll.” But BCA also lists some potential surprises, notably Obama winning the electoral vote, despite Romney winning the popular tally. Other possibilities include a tie in the electoral college, which would throw the election to the GOP-controlled House. Or Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson playing spoiler, as Ralph Nader did in 2000, siphoning support from Romney in Colorado and New Hampshire to give those states’ 13 electoral votes to Obama. Any of the outlier outcomes would weaken the next president and heighten policy uncertainty, as would an Obama win and a strong showing by Tea Party candidates in the Senate and House.

Bottom Line: Romney is better for equities, Obama, for Treasuries, and a contentious result on Nov. 6 would be negative for both stocks and the real economy,” BCA concludes.


Read the full article at:   A Cliff Too Steep, Even For D.C. 

Print Friendly
Macroeconomic Research
BCA Research About BCA Research

BCA Research is the world’s leading provider of independent investment research. Since 1949, the firm has supported its clients in making better investment decisions through the delivery of leading-edge economic analysis and comprehensive investment strategy research. With access to over 150,000 raw time-series, BCA strategists are aided by one of the most extensive research databases in existence, cover every region of the globe, and provide analysis on virtually every investable asset class. BCA maintains a head office in Montreal, with local offices in New York, Los Angeles, London, Hong Kong, Sydney, and Buenos Aires. Not yet a client of BCA? Take a short trial to our research.