Reprinted from: Barron’s
By: Randall W. Forsyth
T he possibility of a U.S. disaster should sober up the politicians in D.C., and it’s likely to do just that.
…meanwhile, analysts at BCA Research think the electoral-college odds favor Obama, but add that Romney has a 40% chance of winning, depending on how the “electoral dice roll.” But BCA also lists some potential surprises, notably Obama winning the electoral vote, despite Romney winning the popular tally. Other possibilities include a tie in the electoral college, which would throw the election to the GOP-controlled House. Or Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson playing spoiler, as Ralph Nader did in 2000, siphoning support from Romney in Colorado and New Hampshire to give those states’ 13 electoral votes to Obama. Any of the outlier outcomes would weaken the next president and heighten policy uncertainty, as would an Obama win and a strong showing by Tea Party candidates in the Senate and House.
Bottom Line: Romney is better for equities, Obama, for Treasuries, and a contentious result on Nov. 6 would be negative for both stocks and the real economy,” BCA concludes.
Read the full article at: A Cliff Too Steep, Even For D.C.