We are pleased to announce the official release of New Daily Insights – BCA’s first interactive service.

L aunched today, May 13, 2013 – New Daily Insights is now available as a completely online and interactive experience: research content will be delivered via emails that include hyperlinked titles and no static PDFs. In addition – through the power of responsive design – the service can be viewed across all platforms, including desktops, tablets and smart phones.

Our move to digital delivery coincides with the release of several new features:

Insights: Now with greater breadth and depth, in four categories:

• Featured Insights: Focused and brief analysis of global financial market trends
• Morning Meetings: A same-day snapshot into the ideas and debates of our strategists
• Key Releases: Detailed analysis of the day’s economic data
• The Week Ahead: Published Fridays, find out what BCA expects will move markets in the week ahead

Ask A Strategist: Interact with BCA strategists online. Ask your questions and access all QA to uncover what is relevant to the BCA community.

Inside BCA: Learn what our strategists are reading, view their comments on controversial themes and views, read interviews with members of the financial community, and discover suggested research from the BCA vault.

Polls: Share your opinion and search previous polls for insights on key topics. Suggest a poll – we’re listening.

We look forward to having our New Daily Insights clients engage with us through comments, questions and polls.

Nanci K. Murdock, CFA
Editor, Inside BCA
New Daily Insights

Reprinted from: The Economist
By, Buttonwood

If it seems odd that gold and Treasury bond yields are both falling when U.S. equities have recently been reaching new highs, Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research points to another disconnect – that between U.S. and European equities. Since the end of Janaury, the Eurostoxx had dropped 5.5% while the S&P 500 had risen by 4% (at the time his research note was published). Lest you think that is all down to the euro zone’s problems, emerging markets have also been weak this year.

I s it all down to the relative strength of the U.S. economy? Surely not. For a start, recent data such as the non-farm payrolls have been weak. Secondly, as previous posts have pointed out, there is very little connection between an equity market and domestic economic growth. Many of the companies in the S&P 500 and Eurostoxx are multinationals and thus are affected by global factors.

Indeed, most of the time, the two indices move in tandem. According to Mr. Joshi, since the launch of the euro, the indices have moved in opposite directions for only 7 out of 57 quarters.

So what’s going on?

Mr. Joshi has pointed to the disconnect between equities and commodities before and he thinks the latter are clearly signalling a slowdown in global growth.  With U.S. companies reporting some disappointing earnings numbers, it may be that the recent falls in the S&P 500 have further to go.

[Read the full article at: The Economist]

Reprinted from: The Montreal Gazette
By, Jay Bryan

A part from the titillating presence of Russians with possibly shady wealth, there’s not a lot of difference between today’s banking crisis in Cyprus and the crises that we saw a few years ago in places like Iceland and Ireland. As with the preceding events, the outcome seems certain to be painful, this time not only for Cypriots but also for the credibility of the eurozone’s political leaders. But disaster is unlikely…

As of Friday, it appeared likely that a new plan would impose heavier levies on big depositors and leave the smaller ones alone. That pretty much guarantees that the days of easy Russian money and a large financial industry are over. On the other hand, not all is lost for Cyprus.

Chief Strategist Peter Berezin at Montreal’s Bank Credit Analyst points out that since the easy money is gone anyway, it would be wise to impose a very big levy, maybe 50 per cent, on big bank accounts. At least this way, the country would raise enough funds to make its downsized banks financially solid.

And despite the recent nervousness about Europe, Berezin continues to rate its stocks as one of the best values around — if you’re willing to hang on through the turmoil that might last for a few more years. It’s hard to find another place where you can buy so many good companies so cheaply.

[Read the full article at:  montrealgazette.com]

Reprinted from: Property Week
By, Claer Barrett

A new generation of resource-rich developing nations are challenging the world’s more established sovereign wealth funds for prime assets in London, Europe and beyond. “What’s behind this trend is the curse of natural resources,” explains Tony McGough, Chief Global Real Estate Strategist at BCA Research.

He says booming commodities prices are generating huge cash reserves for oil-rich states, but, “if you spend that capital at home, you either stoke up economic demand and cause inflation, and/or boost the exchange rate and ruin other domestic industry by making exports uncompetitive”.

More recently – stable nations, such as Nigeria and Angola, are following established oil producers, such as the Gulf states and Norway, by investing in foreign real estate to drive long-term, stable returns that supplement often volatile commodity markets, and bolster their emerging economies. Many are doing so in partnership with a UK-based fund manager or investment adviser.

“It is much easier to pay the fees to a partner than build up a company of hundreds of specialists,” adds McGough. “It’s very good for the fund management and development community, who have the infrastructure, history and talent. All they need is money — so it’s a good marriage.” 

McGough predicts: “The next phase will be funding development, and then buying the debt, which some funds are already working on.”

Registered users of propertyweek.com can read the full article here:  The Wealth Of Nations

Reprinted from: The Montreal Gazette
By, Jay Bryan

[Read the full article at:  montrealgazette.com]