U.S. Payroll Report: Not A “Tapering Game-Changer”

U.S. payrolls increased by 169,000 in August, although downward revisions to previous months brings the three-month moving average down to a disappointing 148,000 per month. Still, we doubt this data will meaningfully sway the Fed's … [More.]

Oil Risks To The Upside

Our base case scenario for the rest of 2013 is for Brent to trade in the $105-115 range, but the risks are strongly skewed to the upside. Brent should continue to find a floor around $100 over the next 6 to 9 months, despite potential air … [More.]

Are Rapidly Rising Yields A Potential U.S. Equity Roadblock?

The level of yields is not yet economically-damaging, but our U.S. equity team argues that the speed of the advance has reached the point where investors should expect equity volatility. The speed of the yield jump is unnerving for stock … [More.]

Do Not Miss This Conference!

Obama said July 31 he is considering Yellen, Summers and Kohn. — The Financial Post We are delighted that two of our New York 2013 esteemed speakers, Lawrence Summers and Donald Kohn, are contenders to be the next Fed Chairman. Moreover, you should n … [More.]

Tapering And The Potential Impact On Credit Spreads

According to our U.S. Bond Strategy service, there could be some modest disruption in the performance of risk assets as the Fed pares back its asset purchases. One key question about Fed policy is whether quantitative easing works through the … [More.]