Doubts About The “Reflation Trade”

A number of commentators have characterized the recent recovery in stock prices as a so-called “reflation trade”. Our Global Investment Strategy service is skeptical of this interpretation. For one thing, gold - the classic barometer of ref … [More.]

Are Australian (Vs. U.S.) Banks Going Down And Under?

The Fed reaffirmed that a rate hike is still in the cards, as financial stress is receding, and China has stepped up policy easing. The implication is that Global Alpha Sector Strategy’s diverging monetary policy theme is alive and well, with the F … [More.]

Middle East: A Tale Of Red Herrings And Black Swans

The U.S. deleveraging from the Middle East has exposed once-suppressed fissures between its inhabitant states. The result will be heightened geopolitical risk, with consequences for oil price volatility. However, a clear understanding of the regional … [More.]

Don’t Give Up On U.S. Pharma

U.S. pharmaceutical stocks have been a juggernaut throughout the most intense valuation expansion phase of the bull market since 2012. The group has ticked all the boxes, providing growth, safety, yield and a chance to harvest takeover premiums … [More.]

EM Corporate Health: Profitability

Our EM strategists’ analysis of nine non-financial sectors across 18 EM countries has not revealed widespread signs of improved corporate profitability or profit margins: Net profit margins for EM non-financial companies have dropped to well b … [More.]