Stuck In A Rut

Mr X. - more conflicted than ever about the 2016 outlook - poses some tough questions to BCA’s editorial board. Mr. X is a long-time BCA client who visits our offices toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market o … [More.]

Global Fixed Income Strategy: Where To Hide

We have recommended a long duration stance for some time because we believe that the Fed will not be able to tighten as quickly as the dot-plot suggests. Global deflationary pressures, and quantitative easing in Europe and Japan, will anchor the … [More.]

U.S. Equities: Deflation Still Prevails

The most widely telegraphed Fed interest rate hike in history ushered in a brief sigh of equity market relief. However, we doubt the sustainability of any rally attempts, because deflation remains the dominant stock market threat. Domestic goods … [More.]

Taylor Rule And The Fed

Plenty of reasons have been offered for why the Fed was correct in raising rates, including the Taylor Rule. It is true that conventional Taylor rules - rules that specify what the interest rate should be today based on the level of the output … [More.]

China: Growth And Policy

China’s economic growth looks set to finish 2015 once again below the official target, for the second consecutive year. The growth slowdown is partially attributable to natural economic factors such as weakened global demand and excess c … [More.]