U.S. Stocks: Heading For A Bubble?

A global resynchronized recovery is good news for corporate profits. But better profit growth is no longer news for the stock market because the S&P 500 has already discounted a 10% increase in forward earnings in the next 12 months. Therefore, if … [More.]

U.S. Homebuilders Are Bullish For 2014

Another round of better-than-expected U.S. housing data bodes well for growth in 2014. U.S. housing starts were strong in November, after earlier weakness related to the government shutdown. Importantly, home builder confidence resumed its … [More.]

Remembering Nelson Mandela

If the world had more leaders like Nelson Mandela, I would probably be out of a job. At BCA Geopolitical Strategy, our methodological credo is constraints over preferences. We focus on constraints to policymaker actions, not on their preferences. … [More.]

Canadian Housing: The Bubble Debate

It is always difficult to spot a speculative bubble in advance, but in the case of Canadian housing the weight of evidence is clear in our view: Price level: The IMF highlighted recently that Canada tops the list of the most expensive homes … [More.]

Overweight S&P Materials

The S&P materials sector is well positioned for a positive surprise as the global recovery gathers pace next year, even if developing economies remain laggards. The downshift in Chinese economic growth, lackluster trends in commodity … [More.]