Profit Margin Pressure

Casualties from the Fed’s looming tightening cycle include the global yield curve and global profit margins. Over the past two decades, the G7 yield curve has been an excellent leading indicator of global margins. Currently, not only are s … [More.]

Geopolitical Strategic Outlook 2016

For the first time in the four-year history of BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy, we are decidedly bearish about global assets. We remain long developed markets and short emerging markets, but even in the former we see geopolitical risks r … [More.]

FOMC Takes The First Step, What Next?

Now that the FOMC has finally pulled the trigger, the key questions surround the pace of rate hikes and whether or not the Fed’s reaction function has changed. It finally happened. The Fed took the first step in the tightening process, after y … [More.]

Inflation Implications Of The Commodity Carnage

Despite our view that inflation will be very benign in the developed world, inflation expectations are too low in the U.S. and too high elsewhere. In an earlier Insight we showed our Global Fixed Income Strategy service's projections for the … [More.]

EM Credit Quality Is Tumbling

The December Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Quarterly Review made for grim reading; the publication confirmed that the U.S. dollar debt overhang in the EM non-financial corporate sector has left this space highly vulnerable to an … [More.]