FOMC: Dots At A Turning Point?

The surge in the dollar has made clear that the U.S. economy will not be spared the deflationary pressures emanating from outside the country. The Minutes from the September FOMC meeting revealed that policymakers recognize the threat to growth, and … [More.]


In a multipolar world countries will have to navigate multiple relationships, some will be difficult to classify as either alliances or rivalries. I am not entirely sure as to the origin of the term ‘frenemy’ – the wikipedia entry for the word sugg … [More.]

Market Diverges From FOMC

The money market has largely ignored the steady upward march in the median dots over the past year. Among other possible reasons, our Global Fixed Income Strategy service points out that the divergence between market expectations and the Fed’s median … [More.]

(Part I) EM Credit Spreads: Unsustainable Divergence

EM sovereign and corporate credit markets have so far defied the selloff in EM equities and foreign exchange markets, but the odds of material spread widening are considerable. As G7 central banks have crowded out global fixed-income investors … [More.]

East Asia Blues: South China Sea Is Not Going Away Folks

A poll of BCA Research Investment Conference attendees suggested that most investors are worried about Russia and the Islamic State, but investment-relevant risk remains in East and Southeast Asia. I just got back to our Montreal HQ after two days … [More.]