Fed Lift-Off Conditions: A Look At Prior Cycles

The Fed's decision to raise rates will remain data dependent, and liftoff will be delayed if the economic and inflation data continue to underwhelm the Fed's expectations. Our U.S. fixed income team recently compared the economic data today … [More.]

Bad News About Oil Prices

I have very bad news about oil prices. In the foreseeable future, their most likely trajectory is… volatile. That is right, bullish and bearish oil price narratives will be proven to be unsatisfactory and overly simplistic. The best bet would be to i … [More.]

Geopolitics And Oil Prices

The paradigm of a clear and unidirectional relationship between geopolitical factors and oil prices is breaking down. Gone are the days when geopolitics of the Middle East played an obvious role that simply raised the risk premium on oil … [More.]

Dollar-Bloc Commodity Currencies: More Downside

Our FX strategists expect the dollar-bloc commodity currencies to remain under pressure versus the greenback. China holds the key for the commodity exporting currencies. Despite the soaring stock market, thus far there are scant signs that the … [More.]

What To Expect In Q2 2015?

Our Global Investment Strategy service recently published their Strategy Outlook for Q2 2015. The quarterly report highlights the following points: Global growth should remain broadly unchanged over the balance of the year, as stronger … [More.]