U.S. Treasury: A Classic Supply Shock?

The collapse in oil prices at the end of last week sent Treasury yields plunging back toward year-to-date lows. According to our U.S. Bond Strategy service, Treasury market moves are consistent with a classic supply shock in oil … [More.]

OPEC Fail = Win For U.S. Consumers

OPEC failed to agree on production cuts at today’s meeting in Vienna. The biggest winners of this outcome are U.S. consumers, who will continue to free up more cash for discretionary spending thanks to lower energy bills. So far this year, it i … [More.]

FOMC Downplays The Risks For Now

It was not a surprise that the FOMC described the amount of under-utilization in the labor market as “gradually falling”. Nonetheless, the Minutes were on the hawkish side for two main reasons. First, the comments played down the importance of … [More.]

Euro Area Positive Economic Surprise: Window Of Opportunity?

We have highlighted in previous Insights that sentiment toward euro area growth is dismal and that the bar for positive surprises was low. Indeed, incoming data is now beating these low expectations, which if history repeats, could trigger a … [More.]

Top Ten Books On Geopolitics

A number of clients and colleagues have asked me for a recommended reading list on "geopolitics." This is the "top ten" list. Geopolitics, as a discipline or social science, does not exist. Furthermore, for many investors, it is simply a catch-all … [More.]