EM: Beware Of Breakdown In Industrial Metals Prices

The recent breakdown in industrial metals prices in general and copper in particular is heralding more downside in EM risk assets. Historically, EM share prices have been tightly correlated with commodity prices in general and industrial … [More.]

China Stimulus Package: Curb Your Enthusiasm

China officials recently announced that the government is accelerating 300 infrastructure projects valued at 7 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) this year. At first sight, that is considerably larger than the stimulus package of 2009-2010, which gave a … [More.]

FOMC: Oil Supports Fed’s Gameplan

Carnage in the oil market spells trouble for the short-end of the Treasury curve. The FOMC Minutes from the December policy meeting reinforced the message that plunging oil prices and eroding market-based inflation expectations are not … [More.]

(Part I) U.S. Equity Bull Market: Is The End Near?

Cyclically, U.S. equity market behavior resembles a late-stage bull market, characterized by narrowing breadth and declining correlations. One of two cyclical scenarios is likely to play out on a 6-12 month horizon. The preferred scenario of … [More.]

Russia: The Day Of Panic

The attempt by the Russian central bank to avert the ruble’s slide has been strongly rebuffed by the market.  The USD/RUB has fallen 15% since the surprise 650 basis point rate hike on December 16, a clear signal that Russian policymakers have … [More.]