Shadow Fed Funds Rate Says Sell U.S. Equities

Investor optimism has been rekindled as weakening U.S. employment has deferred Fed interest rate hike expectations. Nevertheless, the Fed may stay hawkish because the labor market is near full employment, unemployment insurance claims remain below … [More.]

Weak Global Vital Signs

According to our U.S. equity strategists, to forecast that a weaker U.S. dollar will revitalize rather than simply stabilize profits on a broad-basis, it is critical for the rest of the world to demonstrate an internal demand impulse. That would … [More.]

An Update On Global Growth

According to our EM strategists, there is not much evidence to argue that global growth is improving: Global trade volumes are contracting and EM share prices - advanced by six months - indicate that the pace of global trade volume … [More.]

When To Favor U.S. Cyclical Equities?

Our U.S. equity strategists are monitoring a number of key signposts that would help signal when the tide would turn sustainably in favor of cyclical sectors: Broad-based and sustained U.S. dollar weakness, particularly against a basket of EM … [More.]

A Trump Victory Would Be Bullish For The Dollar

The latest Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report entitled “A Trump Victory Would Be Bullish For The Dollar” challenges the notion that a Trump win would be bad news for the dollar. All three of Trump's signature policy proposals - increased def … [More.]