The Implications Of Ongoing Weak EM Credit Growth

With emerging market (EM) currencies having depreciated considerably and numerous EM central banks cutting interest rates, many clients have been asking whether EM monetary conditions have already eased enough for their economic growth to accelerate. … [More.]

China: The Feedback Loop Of A Bull Market

The tug of war between growth and policy reflation will remain the dominant theme this year, in which weak growth numbers will force policymakers into more aggressive reflation efforts. This is already turning out to be good news for stock prices. … [More.]

Dollar Strength, EM Stresses = Ongoing U.S. Equity Risk

Today, a discussion about to what extent dollar strength, that leads to EM stresses, will infect U.S. bourses. Our EM team has been warning for some time that sharply higher foreign-currency debt levels among emerging market (EM) companies and … [More.]

Chinese Debt Swap Program: A Potential Game Changer?

The Chinese government is planning a massive debt swap program to deal with local government liabilities. This could fundamentally change investors’ perceptions about a key risk factor that has plagued China’s macro picture in recent yea … [More.]

Introducing Our Global Sector Earnings Models And Positioning

Currently, Global Alpha Sector Strategy’s global equity sector earnings models are consistent with maintaining a defensive portfolio structure, which will provide protection should the liquidity-driven overshoot run into trouble in the coming m … [More.]