Timely Reminders Of Sterling’s Bearish Fundamentals

The surprise Brexit vote last week dealt a severe blow to sterling. Beyond the vote, the fundamentals remain negative for the British pound. Timely reminders came today from the BoE governor and the Q1 current account release. Even before the … [More.]

The Coming EXITentialist Crisis

British voters decided to leave the European Union on June 23, potentially ending 43 years of membership. At BCA Research, our investment philosophy is that, at critical junctures such as this one, it makes sense to take a cold shower and resist … [More.]

China: Has Policy Reflation Lost Momentum?

After exhibiting improvement since late last year, the most recent Chinese economic data have deteriorated on the margin. This is largely due to changes in policy stance. Policies implemented late last year induced a quick growth acceleration, which … [More.]

U.S. Equities: Margin Optimism Is Not Justified

U.S. corporate profit margins are already narrowing, but bottom up forecasts are looking for an aggressive move out to new highs in the coming quarters. Given U.S. labor cost inflation, revenues need to snapback from their current contraction … [More.]

Brexit: The Final Days

Our European Investment Strategy service recently published a report entitled “Brexit: The Final Days, Part 1”, which includes discussions that 30% of voters will either make up or change their minds in the last week before the U.K.’s crucial refer … [More.]