Euro Area Corporate Fundamentals On The Mend

The Euro Area Corporate Health Monitor (CHM) moved further into ‘improving health’ territory in the fourth quarter. Our Corporate Health Monitors (CHM) for the U.S. and Euro Area are a composite of six key financial ratios for the entire non … [More.]

The Biggest Risks For U.S. Credit

Our U.S. bond strategists have made the case to remain overweight credit until monetary conditions become excessively restrictive, which is anticipated to be at least a couple Fed rate hikes away. In the meantime, there are two non-trivial risks that … [More.]

Low Growth And High Debt: Financial Repression Is Here To Stay

In case we needed to be reminded, the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook included a section on the rather dismal long-run outlook for economic growth. Trends in demographics and productivity are expected to deliver average potential growth of only 1 … [More.]

The Spike In German Bund Yields Will Not Last

The recent selloff in German bunds has been driven by two factors. First, Grexit risks have abated. Second, and more importantly, euro area growth continues to surprise on the upside. The IMF reckons that the lagged effect of a weaker euro … [More.]

Currency-Warmongers

Currency wars. Trade wars. Beggar-thy-neighbor transgressions. Much ink is spilled talking about these supposed threats to the world economy. But these discussions are usually uninformed and filled with ominous predictions. We should call these … [More.]