Energy Stocks: Where’s The Bottom?

Our Global Investment Strategy service argues against buying energy-related equities.   Based on price-to-book, price-to-earnings, and price-to-sales, the energy sector looks relatively cheap today compared with 2004 (the last time … [More.]

EM: Beware Of Breakdown In Industrial Metals Prices

The recent breakdown in industrial metals prices in general and copper in particular is heralding more downside in EM risk assets. Historically, EM share prices have been tightly correlated with commodity prices in general and industrial … [More.]

China Stimulus Package: Curb Your Enthusiasm

China officials recently announced that the government is accelerating 300 infrastructure projects valued at 7 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) this year. At first sight, that is considerably larger than the stimulus package of 2009-2010, which gave a … [More.]

FOMC: Oil Supports Fed’s Gameplan

Carnage in the oil market spells trouble for the short-end of the Treasury curve. The FOMC Minutes from the December policy meeting reinforced the message that plunging oil prices and eroding market-based inflation expectations are not … [More.]

(Part I) U.S. Equity Bull Market: Is The End Near?

Cyclically, U.S. equity market behavior resembles a late-stage bull market, characterized by narrowing breadth and declining correlations. One of two cyclical scenarios is likely to play out on a 6-12 month horizon. The preferred scenario of … [More.]