Uncertain Global Growth And Policy Environment

2016 is turning out to be a year where global central bankers are finding out what they cannot do. China found out early in the year that currency depreciation can no longer be used as a source of stimulus without causing panic in their equity … [More.]

U.S. Equities: Is Sentiment Truly Bearish?

While not an exact science, a number of metrics suggest that investors are far more bullish than sentiment readings imply. True bearishness elicits a rush for the equity exits, which prompts position deleveraging, a valuation squeeze, a … [More.]

Brazil: Beyond The Impeachment Process

Our Emerging Markets Strategy service argues that investors should avoid the temptation to buy Brazilian assets. Brazilian assets surged in the run-up to this past Sunday's vote in the lower house of congress to impeach President Dilma … [More.]

China: Fiscal Spending And Credit Impulses

In its latest Special Report, our Emerging Market Strategy service provided estimates for China’s fiscal boost this year. The 2016 budget was approved last month at National People's Congress. It has penciled in that central government s … [More.]

Overvalued And Overlevered

If we had conviction that the profit contraction was near a reversal, subdued economic activity would be less worrisome. But in this cycle, corporate balance sheets are stuffed with excess leverage, underscoring that the risk of hitting stall speed … [More.]