We* Read (And Liked)… Only Yesterday – An Informal History Of The 1920s

Frederick Lewis Allen’s Only Yesterday1 is by no means a well-kept secret. It was a best-seller when it was published in 1931, and continues to show up on reading lists of both university courses and famous investors. For anyone interested in l … [More.]

U.S. Equity Sectors And The Soaring U.S. Dollar

The U.S. equity market is being forced to adjust to a surging U.S. dollar. There will be winners and losers. The U.S. dollar has climbed to its highest level in more than four years, coincident with a sharp decline in global inflation expectations … [More.]

Euro And The Stock Market

Unlike other major currencies, the euro has a strong and persistent positive correlation with the domestic stock market. For Japan, the U.S. and the U.K., the correlation between the stock market and the currency has tended to be negative (or … [More.]

The “New, Normal” In EM Ex-China

EM economies ex-China are slowing to a "new, normal growth" phase, which will keep bulks and base metals under pressure this year and next. These economies join China in a broad-based EM slow-down, which will increase the supply-side slack in metals … [More.]

Euro Area: Potential For Upside Surprise?

Recent client visits uncovered that investors are uniformly bearish on Europe. What could go right? We offer two potential candidates for upside surprises in Europe: European banks have been hesitant to lend ever since the … [More.]