The latest Global Investment Strategy Weekly Report entitled “A Trump Victory Would Be Bullish For The Dollar” challenges the notion that a Trump win would be bad news for the dollar. All three of Trump’s signature policy proposals – increased deficit-financed infrastructure spending, a more restrictive immigration policy, and trade protectionism – are dollar bullish. These policies could cause the U.S. economy to overheat, forcing the Fed to raise real rates more than it otherwise would. In terms of other asset classes, equities could rally in the near term following a Trump victory, but are likely to face stiff longer-term headwinds. Treasurys would still suffer modest losses, while, ironically, the one asset that could suffer the most from a Trump victory is gold.
About Peter Berezin
Peter Berezin joined BCA Research in 2010 and is currently BCA’s Senior Vice President, Global Investment Strategy. He also oversees BCA’s Equity Trading Strategy service, which he helped develop and launch in
2015. During his tenure at BCA, he has also served as Chief Strategist of The Bank Credit Analyst. Prior to joining BCA, Peter worked for three years as a Senior Global Economist and Market Strategist with Goldman Sachs in New York. Previously in his career, Peter spent seven years with the International Monetary Fund, where he was involved in program negotiations and surveillance in a variety of countries with a special focus on bank restructuring in Asia. He was also a member of the IMF’s Research Department, where he contributed to the Fund’s flagship publication, the World Economic Outlook. Peter has extensive experience in analyzing global economic and financial market trends and is widely quoted in the financial media. He has a Bachelor of Arts (Economics) from McMaster University, a Master of Science (Economics) from the London School of Economics, and a PhD in Economics from the University of Toronto.