Investors trying to make sense of the post-Brexit political environment should adopt a simple maxim: the only certainty is uncertainty. No amount of poring over EU Treaties, U.K. legislative acts, or ancient Celtic runes will bring clarity on whether the country will ultimately leave the EU. Our view is that Brexit is a political act. As such, the process can certainly be constrained by economic reality or law, but it can only be fully reversed through another political act.
In this update on the “next steps,” we focus on the key inflection points at which U.K. policymakers may be offered the opportunity to reverse the decision made by the referendum. The diagram below suggests that there are several. However, many are overstating the ability of “technicalities” to change the outcome of the referendum.
To access the latest Geopolitical Strategy Special Report report entitled “BREXIT – Next Steps”, please click here.