Are Central Banks Behind The Curve Or Ahead Of It?

The Fed is behind the curve in raising rates, as is the Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the Swedish Riksbank. In contrast, the Bank of Japan, the ECB, and the Swiss National Bank have little need to tighten monetary policy.

To access the full report entitled, “Are Central Banks Behind The Curve Or Ahead Of It?“, please click here.

The Timing Of The Next Recession

If the Fed keeps raising rates in line with the “dots,” monetary policy will move into restrictive territory by early 2019. The good news is that today’s economic imbalances are not as formidable as those that existed in the lead-up to the past few recessions. The bad news is that cracks are starting to form – the U.S. commercial real estate sector warrants monitoring. Remain overweight global equities for now, but look to significantly pare back exposure next summer.

To access the full report entitled “The Timing Of The Next Recession”, please click here.

Populism Blues: How And Why Social Instability Is Coming To America

The U.S. is experiencing a surge in populism because of an intense disconnect between elites and the masses. Elites have captured American institutions, making compromise and reform unlikely without a shock to the system. President Donald Trump identified this crisis, but his policies – at this early stage – do not suggest he will alleviate the core problems of popular well-being. With a recession on the horizon in 2019, we expect socio-political instability to rise ahead of the 2020 election.

To access the full report entitled “Populism Blues: How And Why Social Instability Is Coming To America”, please click here.

Break Glass In Case Of Impeachment

Impeachment is a political, not legal, process in the U.S. political system. If Democrats take control of the House of Representatives in 2018, Trump will almost certainly be impeached. Otherwise, it would require “smoking gun” evidence of criminal behavior to turn House Republicans against the president. For now, financial markets will largely ignore impeachment risks and focus on tax cuts. Midterm elections will accelerate their tax-cutting attempts.

To access the full report entitled “Break Glass In Case Of Impeachment”, please click here.