BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy reported returns on its oil recommendations were up 95% last year, during one of the most difficult trading markets in memory. CES is run by Bob Ryan, SVP and Chief Commodity Strategist. The service early on expected global oil supply and demand would rebalance on the back of fierce supply destruction, and the Saudi-Russia detente, which was apparent as early as January 2016. BCA’s CES started looking for ways to get long back in January 2016, and its recommendations paid off handsomely. CES recommended an energy overweight to oil Feb. 4, 2016, and remains bullish as the supply cuts negotiated by Saudi Arabia and Russia take hold.
Our results are not a P&L — we don’t run trading books. We report simple percent returns on recommendations we make following our assessment of the market. Our analysis is driven by fundamentals – supply, demand, inventories and monetary policy – and by our assessment of the geopolitical landscape, which is the product of Mr. Ryan’s 30-plus years of experience in the commodity trading markets, and access to BCA’s world-leading Geopolitical Strategy service run by Marko Papic. Where the returns are positive, we’ve correctly judged where the market was going; where they’re negative, it tells us we are missing something and need to reassess.
For a complimentary recap of 2016 results, and our view of the important issues affecting commodity markets this year, please contact us here.