If the Fed keeps raising rates in line with the “dots,” monetary policy will move into restrictive territory by early 2019. The good news is that today’s economic imbalances are not as formidable as those that existed in the lead-up to the past few recessions. The bad news is that cracks are starting to form – the U.S. commercial real estate sector warrants monitoring. Remain overweight global equities for now, but look to significantly pare back exposure next summer.
To access the full report entitled “The Timing Of The Next Recession”, please click here.